Here are three orthogonal views of a convex shape model of asteroid 2024 YR4 from the paper - a top down view (X-Y) and 2 side views (X-Z and Y-Z).
The asteroid is spinning around the Z axis.
So, what are the physical processes responsible for this flattish shape? Was the asteroid more spherical in the distant past?
Hackaday Links: March 2, 2025 - It’s been quite a week for asteroid 2024 YR4, which looked like it was going to li... - https://hackaday.com/2025/03/02/hackaday-links-march-2-2025/ #lunarreconnaisanceorbiter #hackadaycolumns #hackadaylinks #frankwhittle #trillionaire #citykiller #jetengine #photobomb #asteroid #citibank #nearmiss #2024yr4 #slider #torino #prank #ssid #lro
"Incoming Asteroid" by XKCD comic (mirror bots @xkcd @xkcdbot ) - The smaller the asteroid/meteoroid, the more common it is. There are literally tons of incoming small meteors every day. The bigger they get, fortunately the less common. https://xkcd.com/3049/ #asteroid #astronomy #LowFlyingRocks #2024YR4
Was kommt denn die Planetary Defense Conference da auf Ideen?
Da der Asteroid #2024YR4 nun bei einem Einschlagsrisiko von über 2 Prozent liegt, denken sie über eine Abwehr mit einer Atombombe nach 
(Nach dem Motto: Mann wird ja nochmal laut denken dürfen!)
Ähm - das Ding ist gerade 40 bis 90 Meter lang, da reicht es doch, mit anderen Mitteln seine Bahn zu verändern und wir haben noch 8 Jahre Zeit! 
"Don’t panic, but an asteroid has a 1.9% chance of hitting Earth in 2032" by @arstechnica - The reason not to panic is astronomers are narrowing down a potentially threatening near-Earth #asteroid orbit with accumulating observations. The Earth occupies some small percent of the potential paths while the orbit remains uncertain. Historically, so far narrowing such orbits has eliminated Earth from the path. No guarantees. Monitor news. https://arstechnica.com/space/2025/02/thanks-to-nasa-you-probably-wont-have-to-worry-about-this-asteroid-killing-you/ #2024YR4 #astronomy #LowFlyingRocks
Da gerade Heise wieder darüber berichtet:
Nein, dieser Asteroid wird die Erde nicht treffen - sorry!
Bitte nehmt solche Meldungen erst dann ernst, wenn er 1 Jahr vorher (also ab 2031) kontinuierlich beobachtet werden kann.
Er ist immer noch Klasse 3 auf der Torino-Skala!
Bis dahin kann alles passieren! 
https://www.ago-sternwarte.ch/wissen/sonnensysteme/torino_skala.php
The asteroid 2024 YR4 has been in the news lately because it has a 1.3% chance of impacting Earth in 2032.
I wrote up a short example on how to integrate the orbit with REBOUND and ASSIST in this Jupyter notebook:
https://github.com/hannorein/assist/blob/2024YR4/jupyter_examples/2024%20YR4.ipynb
Mit einer Kollisionswahrscheinlichkeit von über einem Prozent und einem Durchmesser von 40 bis 90 Metern könnte der Asteroid bei einer Kollision Schäden verursachen.
Zum Artikel: https://heise.de/-10264539?wt_mc=sm.red.ho.mastodon.mastodon.md_beitraege.md_beitraege&utm_source=mastodon
The state of uncertainty where asteroid #2024YR4 will be on 22 December 2032 when closest to the Earth: everything from several lunar distances to a super-close flyby to an impact is still possible. Each dot is a test case based on the currently know orbit plus a random error expressing its error bars. From the IAWN document https://iawn.net//documents/NOTIFICATIONS/IAWN_Potential_Impact_Notification_2024_YR4.pdf - updates will appear on the special page https://iawn.net/obscamp/2024YR4/index.shtml by the https://iawn.net/
The impact probability for #2024YR4 in 2032 is now about 1 in 77 and the asteroid's diameter is estimated between 40 and 90 or 100 meters - this in combination warrants coordinated international (at this point, mostly observing) efforts: https://www.esa.int/Space_Safety/Planetary_Defence/ESA_actively_monitoring_near-Earth_asteroid_2024_YR4 and https://blogs.nasa.gov/planetarydefense/2025/01/29/nasa-shares-observations-of-recently-identified-near-earth-asteroid/
If - what's way more likely than an impact - #2024YR4 flies really close by Earth it could reach negative magnitudes for a short time in 2032 and blow Apophis out of the water which will reach only ~3 mag. 3 1/2 years earlier: https://groups.io/g/mpml/topic/110849089#msg40167 (also read the following discussion; there's a lot of uncertainty involved).
More on the case of asteroid #2024YR4 ... here is from https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=3404680066329510 where it *would* come down if the trajectory - as is likely - doesn't shift away from Earth; see also https://groups.io/g/mpml/topic/110849089 for a discussion and https://neo.ssa.esa.int/search-for-asteroids?tab=possimp&des=2024YR4 for an alternate risk assessment with essentially the same outcome, i.e. an impact probability of 1:85 for 22 December 2032 right now.
